We might not have seen the best from Secret Oath and Creative Minister, who have shown they can run competitivefigures while they continue to improve. The average winning Beyer Speed Figure in the Kentucky Derby is 109. 0:04. Olympiad, with Junior Alvarado in the irons, rolled to a 2 -length victory in the July 2 Stephen Foster Stakes at Churchill Downs, his fifth win in a row to start off 2022. The Beyer numbers trace their roots back to the work of Ray Taulbot's parallel-time chart (1959), with Beyer pointing out the flaw of adding a fixed amount of time to slow or fast times at other distances, driving the numbers out of proportion. Combining BSFs with other metrics like Brisnet Speed Figures and final furlong times gives us a more complete picture of this field. .tableizer-table td { Seven of the 12 earned a BSF in the Kentucky Derby of 103 or higher. They are meant to represent the racing merit of an Australian horse. Beyer Speed Figures favor Epicenter, and it is not very close. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball. Since 1992, 27 of 30 Kentucky Derby winners have entered the race with a career-best Beyer speed figure of at least 95. He's advising bettors to consider speed figures and track conditions prior to wagering. A Saratoga Springs-based racing insider and Beyer Speed Figure maker, Weir is a two-time qualifier for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas. After the New York Times gave the book an unexpected rave review, Picking Winners attracted a wide audience. Unlike many of his rivals, he still has room to catch up on speed figures. With Rich Strike and Zandon defecting, it opens the door for the Derby runner-up to dip below 2-1, which is unusually short for a non-Derby winner. border: 1px solid #CCC; I'm going to be very mindful of his campaign, he said. . font-weight: bold; Overall, the number reflects the time of the race and the inherent speed of the track over which it was run. Welcome to 2022 Kentucky Derby Prospect Snapshots, where we'll take a look each week at a recent winner on the Triple Crown trail, usually from the Road to the Kentucky Derby schedule from which the . Signup and get a $200 deposit bonus! Taiba (+800) and Messier (+800) lead the group having posted 103s previously in Kentucky Derby Prep races. Why do we care? Barber Road ran in all four of the Derby preps in Arkansas and failed to put forth a figure that makes him competitive in any of those races. We expect next year to go a lot different than this year because when you do right by a horse, you build a better product going forward. She turned in one of the best Beyer Speed Figures of any 2-year-old in 2021, and her 92 Beyer in the Honeybee Stakes last month was considerably better than Un Ojo's 84 in winning the Rebel . He has produced multiple five-figure days at the track over the years, including a $60,000 Pick 6 at Del Mar in 2014. Flightline was given a 118 Beyer figure for his sensational performance in Sunday's GI Runhappy Malibu S. at Santa Anita, which is the top figure assigned to any horse this year. His victory put him at the top of the 2022 Kentucky Derby leaderboard with a total of 64 points. Beyer Speed Figure: 86.7 Betting Favorites All time: 2 for 15: 2021 Winner: Modern Games (*) $2 Exacta: $93.60 $1 Trifecta: $958.70 Prior to the Malibu, Flightline and Baby Yoda (Prospective) were tied for the best number on the year, a 114. [23], As Beyer has noted, a speed figure is a numerical expression of a horse's final time, universalized for distance, track surface, and the daily variant on that surface. They have come in quite a bit behind their competition, too, with next-lowest belonging to Barber Road. While news that Kentucky Derby sensation Rich Strike will skip the Preakness Stakes surely tamping down some of the fervor over the big race, that doesn't mean there's nothing to watch for or bet on this Saturday. So a high BSF ceiling is notable, but also consistency is a plus too to battle possible negative regression. Video Poker Guide: Play the Best Online Video Poker Games, Tacitus 2019 Kentucky Derby Contender Profile, 2022 Belmont Stakes Odds: We The People Overtakes Mo Donegal On The Oddsboard, 2022 Breeders Cup Predictions: Expert Picks And Best Bets. Similar to the Beyer and Brisnet scales, Secret Oath is in the thick of things from a numbers prospectivewhile challenging the males. Taiba broke his maiden with that impressive number in a six-furlong race on March 5. Early Voting's previous high was only a 91. Stay up-to-date with the best from America's Best Racing! View information about the top race horses and their winnings at DRF.com today. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem. Longtime Washington Post columnist Andy Beyer created the Beyer Speed Figures, first appearing in his groundbreaking handicapping book Picking Sportsbooks in 1975. The figures are straightforward: the greater the number, the quicker the horse. Beyer Speed Figures express the most important factor in handicapping: how fast a horse has run in each of his starts.The winning figure for a race is based on three factors: the final time, the distance, and the inherent speed of the track (a calculation known as the track variant.) Only four contenders in this year's prospective Derby field have a Beyer Speed Figure within five points of co-tops Taiba and Messier:Epicenter with a 102 and Zandon, Zozos and Simplification, each of whom have a 98 Beyer to their credit. After a weekend of three extremely telling Kentucky Derby prep races, and 50-point races coming quickly, there's no better time to take a look at how the crop has performed figures-wise to this point. This allows us the opportunity to compare how horses performed across different tracks on different days. University of Louisville Equine Industry Program - Get a Career in Horse Racing! Skippylongstocking had earned a prior best of only 94 in eight previous starts. Please visit gambleaware.co.uk or gamcare.org.uk for guidelines on responsible gaming. In Europe, Timeform has a similar rating scale that yields a number, but with a different value. Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) is a common metric used to handicap horse racing and contextualize how well a horse ran in a given race. If the top contenders in a Belmont MSW field regularly run in the 70s, the race may be a good spot for first-time starters or other entrants with no recent form. However, Beyer gave both colts a Beyer Speed Figure of 100. Breeders Cup Promo - Get Up to $200 Back If Your First Bet Loses1 //logo version 1.0.2 - Jun 2022 TVG .cls-TVG-1a-svg-logo-1 { fill: #000001; } .cls-TVG-1a-svg-logo-2 { fill: #fff; } .cls-TVG-1a-svg-logo-3 { fill: #009c58; } Visit TVG$200 BONUSIf Your Bet LosesTVG ReviewGet Your First Single-Horse Win Wager BackUp to $200 If You LoseUse Promo Code: 200TVGPLAY NOW. He earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 121. . [5][6][7] Easy Goer also routinely ran in the 120 Beyer Speed Figure range on a regular basis in his races, while arch-rival Sunday Silence did so rarely and only when it was required for him to prevail. Belmont Stakes 2022: Post positions, morning line; We the People favored at 2-1. . This could have inflated the Beyer Speed Figure earned by a horse in a race. Each week, we will analyze the top maiden winners by Beyer performances. (Note that this speed figure was assigned before the numbers were published in the Daily Racing Form, so may not be included in some listings of the top speed figures. Epicenter's effort in the Risen Star earned him a 98 Beyer and Brisnet. This year, five colts already have surpassed a 102: Taiba, Mo Donegal, Early Voting, all with 111s to their credit, as well as Messier (108) and Zandon (103). He's a gift. Beyers subsequent books, My $50,000 Year at the Races (1978), The Winning Horseplayer (1983), and Beyer on Speed (1993) continued to raise racing fans awareness of the importance of speed figures. Un Ojo Ethereal Road and Happy Jack have the lowest career-best BSFs. Play today with NYRA Bets! Belmont Stakes 2022 post positions, morning line; We the People favored at 2-1. . The team that puts out the Beyer speed figure numbers made it official Monday morning. BSFs were created by Andy Beyer and are a system for rating the performance of horses in North America. Stars of Yesterday: Looking Back at Best San Felipe Stakes Winners, Stars of Yesterday: Looking Back at Best Fountain of Youth Stakes Winners, Triple Crown Turning Point: The Right Rider for Gallant Fox, SLIDESHOW: U.S. A system for rating the performance of Thoroughbred racehorses in North America, Learn how and when to remove this template message, "Figure Makers: An Open Mind Rules The Beyer Method", "Flightline stunning as he runs away with Pacific Classic", "Overacheiver [sic] Cigar Had a Mark of Consistency", "Paulick Report Forum brought to you by Breeders' Cup: Talking Speed Figures with Beyer", "Best Bets: A handicapping history of the Breeders' Cup, Part 5 [Breeders' Cup]", "Commentator stands alone in Beyer history", "With a Combination of Speed and Class, War Pass Is Reminiscent of Seattle Slew", "Jerardi: Top Beyer Figures a thing of the past", "Frosted ran off the screen and to the top of the Beyer scale", "Overacheiver Cigar Had a Mark of Consistency", "American Pharoah's 120 erases any doubts", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Beyer_Speed_Figure&oldid=1115194621, Short description is different from Wikidata, Articles with unsourced statements from March 2015, Articles needing additional references from March 2015, All articles needing additional references, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 3.0, This page was last edited on 10 October 2022, at 07:24. Secret Oath's 103 number ranks as good as anyone who did not run in the Wood Memorial. These numbers reflect the relative strength of different racing circuits. } Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem. She turned in her first workout on the Churchill Downs surface on Saturday, April 30, going four furlongs in 47.80 seconds. Wudda U Think Now had the weekend's highest Beyer Speed Figure and Brisnet Speed Ratings after winning the black-type Hollie Hughes at Aqueduct on Saturday for his first stakes win in 14 career starts. Below we take a closer look at the Beyer Speed Figures, Brisnet Speed Ratings and TimeformUS Figures to determine his biggest threats. I believe the number for the Wood was inflated after it was compared to the Gazelle Stakes (G3) at the same distance on the same card. Taiba earned a 111 Brisnet rating in winning the Santa Anita Derby, the same number earned by both Mo Donegal and Early Voting, who were separated by just a neck when 1-2 in the Wood. 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